Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 8 forecast

Both seat projections place the Moderate Party third with a wide cushion over lower parties, so a third-place finish in Sweden’s parliamentary election is highly likely.

Two seat projections place the Moderate Party third and far above its nearest pursuers. The main threat is upward rather than downward: late polls show the Moderates nearly level with the Sweden Democrats, making a second-place finish the clearest route to a NO result. Still, the Sweden Democrats have led throughout a long polling run, and both seat models preserve that ordering.

Points to YES

Aggregate seat modeling places the Moderate Party securely in third.
Valkoll’s 2026 aggregate seat forecast placed the Moderates third, behind the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats but well ahead of the Left Party.
Novus independently projects the same first-to-third ordering.
Novus’s September 2026 seat model placed the Moderates third, well behind the Sweden Democrats but far ahead of the tied Left and Centre parties.
The Sweden Democrats have maintained a durable polling lead over the Moderates.
As of August 30, the Sweden Democrats had led the Moderates in every SVT and Verian poll since May 2025.

Points to NO

The latest Ipsos poll leaves second and third almost interchangeable.
An Ipsos poll published September 8 placed the Sweden Democrats only three-tenths of a percentage point ahead of the Moderates.
Novus also finds no decisive polling separation between the two parties.
In the September 7 Novus voter barometer, the Sweden Democrats’ lead over the Moderates was within the margin of error.

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