Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+49%$100 paper stake

Polymarket67¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES67¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

The latest weighted trend gives Die Linke the third-most seats, so a third-place Die Linke finish is likely.

Die Linke is likely to finish third because recent surveys consistently place it ahead of the CDU, and the latest weighted seat calculation gives it a narrow seat advantage. The race is not secure: the newest survey gap is within sampling error, the CDU has comparable room to gain voters, and threshold outcomes could alter seat allocation.

Points to YES

The latest seat calculation places Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU, providing a direct path to third place if current voter preferences persist.
On August 29, the weighted trend produced a displayed seat composition of nine seats for Die Linke and eight for the CDU, behind only AfD and SPD.
Die Linke has led the CDU in the two most recent listed institute surveys, making its advantage less dependent on a single poll.
An August 29 report listed Die Linke ahead of the CDU in both the August 13 survey and the July 9 survey.

Points to NO

The latest individual survey shows only a very narrow Die Linke lead, leaving ample room for ordinary polling error or late movement to reverse the order.
The August 4–11 survey put Die Linke at 11% and the CDU at 10%, a one-point difference smaller than its stated maximum sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.
Smaller parties remain close to the representation threshold, so modest vote shifts could change seat allocation and potentially erase Die Linke’s narrow seat edge.
On August 29, the weighted trend placed the Greens at 4.9%, BSW at 4.1% and FDP at 3.0%, while its displayed seat calculation included only four parties.
The CDU has comparable potential to expand and faces less outright voter rejection, preserving a credible late-campaign route past Die Linke.
The August survey reported 13 points of additional voter potential for each party, while 38% considered Die Linke completely unvoteable compared with 32% for the CDU.

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