Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin is above $78,250 with less than a day remaining, so settlement at or above the threshold is favored.

Bitcoin enters September 9 around $78,769, leaving a narrow cushion over the settlement threshold. The short remaining window makes that starting position powerful, but September 8 trading crossed the threshold in both directions and showed active selling pressure. Recent ETF inflows offer support, while weakening momentum and holder distribution leave substantial downside risk. The more likely outcome is a threshold-clearing settlement, though even a modest decline could reverse it.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently stands above the settlement threshold with less than a day remaining.
On September 9, Bitcoin’s settlement-basis price was approximately $78,769, above the $78,250 threshold.
Recent fund inflows provide underlying demand that could support threshold-adjacent prices.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $987 million in net inflows during the week ending September 4, their third consecutive positive week.

Points to NO

The cushion is smaller than Bitcoin’s recent intraday fluctuations.
On September 8, Bitcoin fell as low as $77,600 after also trading above $78,250.
Short-term momentum shows persistent selling pressure near the threshold.
On September 8, Bitcoin’s daily MACD registered a bearish crossover while its one-hour and 15-minute charts showed active selling pressure.
Large holders have recently shifted toward distribution rather than accumulation.
On September 8, tracked holder cohorts were distributing for the first time since early June, led by wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC.

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