Navy Midshipmen9vs.Air Force Falcons won14

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Oct 1 forecast

Falcon Stadium’s strong home pattern and Navy’s two-game skid give Air Force the edge, so an Air Force victory is favored.

Air Force enters with better recent results, a productive dual-threat quarterback and a substantial home-series advantage. Navy remains dangerous because its rushing defense has been excellent, its quarterbacks are expected to play and it has won the past two meetings. Those counterweights keep a competitive game more plausible than a comfortable Air Force win, but the Falcons’ home setting and Navy’s consecutive road losses make an Air Force victory the more likely outcome.

Points to Air Force

Falcon Stadium has provided Air Force a strong advantage in this rivalry.
As of September 28, Air Force held a 20-8 home record against Navy entering the 2026 matchup.
Liam Szarka gives Air Force a proven dual-threat centerpiece against Navy.
On September 26, Szarka rushed for 171 yards and passed for 92 yards in Air Force’s double-overtime win at Nevada.
Air Force carries stronger recent form into the matchup.
Air Force entered September 28 at 2-1, while Navy entered at 1-2 after consecutive losses.

Points to Navy

Navy’s rushing defense directly challenges Air Force’s offensive strength.
Through three games as of September 28, Navy ranked eighth nationally in rushing defense at 64.7 yards allowed per game.
Navy expects to have both Braxton Woodson and Jackson Gutierrez available.
On September 28, Navy coach Brian Newberry said he expected Woodson and Gutierrez to play against Air Force.
Navy has recently controlled the rivalry despite Air Force’s broader home advantage.
As of September 28, Navy had won its previous two meetings with Air Force.

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