Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $90 in September?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket60¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO40¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

WTI enters September well below $90 after retreating despite severe Gulf disruption, so a $90 intramonth print is less likely than not.

WTI sits in the low $80s after falling from above $87, even as Hormuz remains severely constrained and regional attacks continue. Recovering export workarounds, weaker Chinese buying and added OPEC+ supply have so far prevented the disruption from forcing crude to $90. Still, depleted inventories and renewed attacks could produce an abrupt intraday spike; a $90 print is less likely than not.

Points to NO

WTI begins the window with meaningful ground to cover before reaching $90.
NYMEX front-month WTI was $83.44 per barrel on August 30.
Recovering Hormuz oil flows are reducing the immediate supply squeeze.
On August 27, sources said Hormuz oil flows had risen to roughly 7–8 million barrels per day from about 4 million in mid-July.
A weakening demand outlook limits the durability of supply-driven rallies.
On August 12, the IEA forecast world oil demand to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026.

Points to YES

Fresh attacks on escorted shipping preserve the risk of a sudden oil-price spike.
On August 29, a monitored report said Iran launched anti-ship cruise missiles toward vessels under U.S. escort in the southern Omani corridor.
Large wartime inventory losses leave the oil market with less capacity to absorb another disruption.
The IEA reported on August 12 that global observed oil stocks had fallen by 410 million barrels from the start of the war through July.

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