Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket28¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES28¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

The US will very likely send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, because the low announcement bar counts any confirmed transit.

Criteria loophole rewards deployment announcements. US strikes suppress coastal defenses. Political necessity drives Project Freedom resumption.

Points to YES

Criteria loophole validates deployment announcements
Official announcements deploying naval vessels to transit satisfy criteria
CENTCOM degraded Iranian coastal threats
CENTCOM forces struck over 140 Iranian military targets, July 11-12 2026
Executive branch explored escort mission resumption
President Trump considered restarting Project Freedom, July 5 2026

Points to NO

US warships face littoral vulnerability
CFR assessed US warships highly vulnerable in narrow Strait, July 2026

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