Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold−43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket28¢ → 16¢
Our position · YES28¢ → 16¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedJul 22
Jul 12 forecast
The US will very likely send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, because the low announcement bar counts any confirmed transit.
Criteria loophole rewards deployment announcements. US strikes suppress coastal defenses. Political necessity drives Project Freedom resumption.
Points to YES
- Criteria loophole validates deployment announcementsOfficial announcements deploying naval vessels to transit satisfy criteria
- CENTCOM degraded Iranian coastal threatsCENTCOM forces struck over 140 Iranian military targets, July 11-12 2026
- Executive branch explored escort mission resumptionPresident Trump considered restarting Project Freedom, July 5 2026
Points to NO
- US warships face littoral vulnerabilityCFR assessed US warships highly vulnerable in narrow Strait, July 2026
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