Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Kalshi74¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

October WTI is trading at $91.4105 with only hours remaining, so a September 4 settlement above $90.49 is likely.

October WTI currently stands at $91.4105, leaving a narrow cushion over the $90.49 threshold with only hours until settlement. Recent trading has crossed the threshold repeatedly, making a late reversal a meaningful risk. Shipping disruption, conflict around Iran, and depleted inventories support elevated prices, while recovering Iraqi exports and continued Hormuz flows limit the upside. The settlement above $90.49 is therefore likely.

Points to YES

October WTI currently has a narrow but useful cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 4, 2026, October WTI was priced at $91.4105 against the $90.49 threshold.
US enforcement operations against Iran are sustaining concern about regional oil flows.
On September 2, 2026, US Central Command said it had redirected 86 commercial vessels, disabled three, and boarded two while enforcing the blockade against Iran.
Low US petroleum inventories leave the market less able to absorb supply disruption.
In the week ending August 28, 2026, US crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks remained below five-year norms.

Points to NO

Recent price swings show that the contract can cross the threshold quickly in either direction.
On September 3, 2026, the October WTI contract traded between $89.57 and $93.14, spanning both sides of $90.49.
Recovering Iraqi exports are adding supply and restraining the conflict-driven price increase.
Iraq's oil exports rose to around 2.34 million barrels per day in August 2026, and officials expected a further increase in September.

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