Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Realized · 7-day hold+34%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 17¢
Our position · NO62¢ → 83¢
Signal endedJul 20
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 13 forecast
Iran is unlikely to announce MOU withdrawal by August 15, because it prefers a conditional suspension blaming Washington over an unconditional exit.
Official statements confirm conditional posture. Iran avoids formal diplomatic blame. Unconditional withdrawal historically uncharacteristic.
Points to NO
- Baghaei confirmed reciprocal stance on MOU obligations, July 12Baghaei affirmed conditional adherence based on US compliance, July 12
- Foreign Ministry halted obligations citing non-compliance, July 13Foreign Ministry declared halt to MOU obligations over non-compliance, July 13
Points to YES
- Khamenei publicly shifted MOU responsibility to Pezeshkian, July 13Khamenei publicly distanced himself from MOU agreement, July 13
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.