Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+127%$100 paper stake

Kalshi44¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES44¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 16

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Persistent inflation and increasingly hawkish Fed leadership outweigh weakening employment, so a September increase above the current 3.75% upper bound is narrowly favored.

The Chair’s inflation concern, elevated core inflation, and three July dissents support tightening. Payroll contraction and officials’ willingness to wait provide a strong counterweight. A September increase is more likely than a hold, but only narrowly, because the remaining employment and inflation reports can still shift the balance.

Points to YES

Chair Kevin Warsh has put persistent inflation and price stability at the center of the September decision.
On August 28, Warsh said recent data showed no meaningful improvement in underlying inflation and that the Fed still had work to do.
Core inflation remains too elevated to give policymakers confidence that price pressures are returning to target.
Data published August 26 showed that core PCE inflation was 3.3 percent over the year through July.
The FOMC already has an organized bloc favoring higher rates.
On July 29, three FOMC members dissented from the decision to hold rates and favored a quarter-point increase.

Points to NO

The labor market has weakened enough to make an immediate increase harder to justify.
The September 1 employment release reported that nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July.
The current target range leaves no margin for a hold to produce a YES outcome.
On July 29, the FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent.

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