Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+33%$100 paper stake

Kalshi25¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO75¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 27 forecast

Bitcoin is trading well below a repeatedly rejected $81,000 threshold with momentum fading, so an Aug. 28 reading at or above it is a long shot.

The latest benchmark readings place Bitcoin around $78,800 after repeated failures to hold gains above $80,000. The recent rally appears stretched, and reversals from above $81,000 show that sellers remain active near the threshold. Strong ETF demand and an unusually large options expiry preserve an upside path, but reaching and sustaining the required level within the short window would require another abrupt surge.

Points to NO

The remaining distance to $81,000 requires an abrupt advance within the short window, substantially reducing the chance of reaching the threshold.
On Aug. 27, the CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index was reported at $78,854.87 after trading between $78,590.95 and $79,026.96.
Repeated reversals from above $81,000 show that the threshold is acting as resistance rather than support, making another attempt less likely to hold.
On Aug. 25, Bitcoin reached $81,265 but later traded as low as $78,111 after falling back below $80,000.
Overstretched momentum and position unwinding increase the risk that profit-taking continues before buyers can mount another breakout.
On Aug. 26, CoinDesk reported Bitcoin at $78,567.36 after a seven-day surge above $80,000, with its 14-day relative strength index above 70.

Points to YES

Persistent spot ETF inflows provide underlying demand that could absorb selling and support another rapid challenge of $81,000.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $314 million of net inflows on Aug. 25, their seventh consecutive inflow session.
The large options expiry creates a narrow path to an outsized upside move, preserving some chance of reaching the threshold despite the current gap.
CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin options worth $6.4 billion were scheduled to expire on Aug. 28, potentially adding price volatility.

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