Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Oct 3 forecast

Most late polls still put Lula first, so a Flávio Bolsonaro first-round victory by less than five points is a meaningful underdog.

Flávio Bolsonaro must finish first while keeping his margin below five points; a tie, a Lula victory, or a wider Flávio win would fall outside this outcome. The polling picture is close but tilts toward Lula, who led 10 of 14 national polls conducted since early September. Flávio nevertheless has a credible path because several late surveys place him narrowly ahead, many voters remain movable, and Brazilian polling materially overstated Lula’s first-round margin in 2022.

Points to NO

Most recent national polls place Lula ahead rather than Flávio Bolsonaro.
Across 14 national polls conducted from September 9 through October 2, Lula led in 10, Flávio led in three, and one was tied.

Points to YES

One of the latest polls shows the narrow Flávio Bolsonaro lead required for this outcome.
The October 3 Gerp poll placed Flávio at 46% of valid votes and Lula at 44%, with a two-point margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro gained sharply in one late poll and moved narrowly ahead.
Between consecutive Vox Brasil polls through October 1, Flávio rose from 37.8% to 41.2% while Lula slipped from 41.1% to 40.4%.
Movable voters provide room for a final shift toward Flávio Bolsonaro.
The October 1 Datafolha poll found that 17% could still change their choice, while hesitant voters named Flávio as a second choice more often than Lula.

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