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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake
Polymarket82¢ 100¢
Our position · YES82¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 31 forecast

Repeated reports of live Fable 5.1 routing indicate late-stage deployment, so Anthropic’s release of the next Mythos-class model by September 9 is highly likely.

The official record leans against an imminent release: Anthropic said Model 2 had no current external-release plan, and no successor announcement or public launch materials had appeared by late August. Even so, several recent reports describe Fable 5.1 routing, release-candidate testing, and launch preparation, while Anthropic has resumed cyber evaluations. Together, those signs make a quiet transition to a broadly available, officially designated successor before September 9 highly likely, although the unofficial reporting leaves room for an abrupt reversal.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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