Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,000 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+49%$100 paper stake

Kalshi33¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO67¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin has repeatedly retreated from $80,000, so a September 9 settlement at or above that threshold is unlikely.

Bitcoin has spent settlement day below $80,000 after retreating from that level repeatedly, while recent liquidations and daily ETF outflows reinforce near-term selling pressure. Still, the current settlement-basis price is only 0.80% below the threshold, and strong ETF inflows over preceding sessions show enough demand for a late rally. With 8.6 hours remaining and sharp moves possible in either direction, an at-or-above-$80,000 settlement is unlikely.

Points to NO

The $80,000 threshold has repeatedly resisted Bitcoin's recovery attempts.
On September 9, Bitcoin had not recaptured $80,000 after briefly exceeding it during the prior week.
Fresh ETF redemptions add immediate selling pressure near settlement.
Reported on September 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $236 million in daily net outflows, including $201 million from BlackRock's IBIT.

Points to YES

Bitcoin needs only a modest rise from its current settlement-basis price to reach $80,000.
On September 9, Bitcoin's settlement-basis price was about $79,364, placing it 0.80% below the threshold with 8.6 hours remaining.
Strong multi-session ETF inflows show that substantial institutional demand remains present.
By September 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted roughly $905 million over two sessions.
Bitcoin traded above the threshold only days ago, showing that $80,000 remains within its recent range.
Bitcoin climbed above $82,000 during the week preceding September 7.

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