Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Sep 4?
Signal ended
Entry · YES48¢
PublishedSep 3
Sep 3 forecast
The $77,822 settlement-basis price is already above the $77,500 strike, so Bitcoin finishing at or above the threshold is favored but far from guaranteed.
Bitcoin currently stands about $323 above the threshold, but that cushion is small relative to its September 3 trading range. A rebound from the mid-$76,000s and renewed spot ETF inflows support another push higher. Negative apparent demand and selling liquidity near recent highs leave ample room for a reversal. An above-threshold settlement is favored, though an ordinary downswing could still defeat it.
Points to YES
- Bitcoin currently has a narrow head start over the settlement threshold.On September 3, the settlement-basis price was $77,822.70, about $323 above the $77,500 strike.
- Bitcoin rebounded above the strike after an earlier selloff.At 08:08 UTC on September 3, Coinbase Pro quoted Bitcoin at $77,949.26 after the session had traded as low as $76,929.29.
- Spot ETF demand resumed after the prior session's outflows.US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $101.15 million on September 2.
Points to NO
- Recent intraday volatility is large enough to erase the current cushion quickly.By 08:08 UTC on September 3, Coinbase Pro had traded between $76,929.29 and $78,149.99 during the session.
- Underlying Bitcoin demand has weakened despite the rebound.Around September 2, Bitcoin's Apparent Demand indicator turned negative again.
- Profitable holders can supply additional selling into price strength.On September 2, Glassnode assessed that increased profitable supply created more potential selling liquidity when Bitcoin revisits prior highs.
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