Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO40¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

October WTI remains below $95.49 with only hours left, so a settlement above the threshold is a meaningful underdog.

October WTI is around $94.51 with roughly six hours remaining, requiring another sustained rally to settle above $95.49. The contract has already traded as high as $95.98, and severe regional attacks leave room for another abrupt spike. However, the previous $93.03 settlement, the retreat from today's high, and signs of recovering oil flows make an above-threshold settlement a meaningful underdog.

Points to NO

October WTI began settlement day well below the required threshold.
On September 8, 2026, the October WTI contract settled at $93.03 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Progress restoring shipping through Hormuz reduces immediate supply-disruption pressure.
On September 8, 2026, Iran's foreign minister said significant progress had been made on the Hormuz shipping route.
Recovering Kuwaiti exports show that producers are finding routes around Hormuz disruptions.
On September 8, 2026, Kuwait's state oil producer was exporting about one million barrels per day through direct delivery and ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz.

Points to YES

The threshold is within today's demonstrated trading range.
On September 9, 2026, intraday WTI reached $95.98 before easing to $94.50.
Escalating attacks on regional energy infrastructure support the risk of another oil-price spike.
On September 8, 2026, operations at some Saudi Arabian energy facilities were halted after Houthi attacks wounded 73 people.

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