Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi40¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

WTI closed below the threshold after surrendering an intraday approach, so an October-contract settlement above $94.99 on September 9 is a meaningful underdog.

October WTI enters the final session at $93.4026, about 1.70% below the threshold. The latest session closed at $92.33 after reaching $94.73, demonstrating both the required rebound and the ability to approach the strike. Fresh attacks, constrained Hormuz traffic, and tight physical conditions leave room for a sharp rally, but reported route progress could unwind the risk premium quickly. On balance, a settlement above $94.99 is a meaningful underdog because the contract must recover and hold that gain during the narrow settlement window.

Points to NO

The latest session ended materially below the strike, leaving a sizable one-day climb.
On September 8, front-month WTI closed at $92.33 after trading as high as $94.73.
Reported progress toward a Hormuz route creates scope for geopolitical risk premiums to retreat.
On September 8, Iran's Abbas Araghchi said there had been significant progress on a Hormuz route.

Points to YES

WTI has already traded within striking distance of the threshold.
On September 8, WTI reached $94.60 intraday, its highest level since June 8.
Attacks on regional energy infrastructure preserve the risk of an abrupt supply-driven rally.
On September 8, Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and set oil installations ablaze.
Exceptionally low Hormuz shipping activity keeps immediate supply concerns elevated.
Over the ten days through September 6, an average of ten commodity ships per day transited Hormuz, the lowest level since May.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.