Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

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Signal endedAug 6

Forecast updatedAug 8

Jul 30 forecast

With Israel sidelined from US-Iran fighting and only 16 days remaining, direct strikes between Israel and Iran are probable not to occur, so the ceasefire likely holds.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has held through the first half of the resolution window, and the fighting visible in late July is between the US and Iran, not Israel and Iran. Israel is deliberately not participating, and Iran is focused on American targets. With just over two weeks left, both sides have strong reasons to avoid reopening a direct front, though a surprise Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or an Iranian decision to widen the conflict remain genuinely possible. The forecast expects the ceasefire probably survives to August 15.

Points to YES

Israel has not joined US strikes on Iran and was sidelined during the late-July escalation, reducing direct conflict exposure.
Evidence
Only 16 days remain in the window, limiting time for either side to plan and execute a direct strike.
Evidence
Netanyahu's July 29 White House talks were described as positive, suggesting US-Israel coordination rather than unilateral Israeli action.
Evidence

Points to NO

Israel and Iran remain in a state of extreme hostility with prior direct strikes in 2024-2025, and Israel's leadership is committed to preventing Iranian nuclear weapons.
Evidence
Private military planning and backchannel dynamics are unknown; non-public information risk is material (~25%).
Evidence

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