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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket82¢
Our position · YES82¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 3
Sep 2 forecast

The Verge says Astra is near release despite delay and private-preview signals, so Astra’s public launch by September 3 is highly likely.

The visible evidence leans against a qualifying launch: OpenAI delayed parts of Astra, began another red-team cycle, and described near-term access as limited without providing a timeline. The contrary evidence is fresh reporting that Astra is on the cusp of release, reinforced by OpenAI’s statement that availability is coming soon. A qualifying public release remains highly likely, but it depends on an abrupt official rollout that may leave little advance public evidence.

Points to YES

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