US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+5%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 33¢
Our position · NO64¢ → 67¢
Signal endedJul 22
Forecast updatedAug 11
Jul 15 forecast
The United States is very unlikely to announce an end to the Iranian blockade by August 15 because recent kinetic escalation leaves no room for a diplomatic resolution.
Recent kinetic escalation and a severely compressed 31-day window make a general blockade suspension highly improbable. Market pressure is likely to be addressed via partial waivers rather than total reversal.
No factor breakdown on this forecast.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.