Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+86%$100 paper stake

Polymarket62¢ → 30¢

Our position · NO38¢ → 70¢

Signal endedJul 22

Forecast updatedJul 24

Jul 15 forecast

A qualifying Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting is unlikely by July 31 because Ukraine deliberately frames working-level contacts as non-diplomatic, keeping them outside the market's definition.

The expected ombudsman meeting triggers the explicit 'non-diplomatic' exclusion clause, while high-level diplomacy remains structurally blocked by maximalist demands.

Points to NO

Resolution criteria explicitly excluded non-diplomatic encounters
Ukraine deliberately stripped ombudsman track of diplomatic status
Evidence
Putin demanded territorial realities for peace talks, June 23
Evidence

Points to YES

Lantratova anticipated upcoming ombudsman meeting, July 2
Evidence

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