Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi32¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES32¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin has already crossed $80,500 during a powerful rally but failed to hold it.

The rally has brought Bitcoin within immediate reach of the threshold and demonstrated enough momentum to cross it. Strong fund inflows support another attempt, but repeated reversals, stretched momentum and signs of short-covering rather than durable buying leave the outcome genuinely close.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has already traded and closed above the threshold during the current rally, showing that only a modest recovery is needed to return there by August 28.
On August 25, Bitcoin reached $81,272.62 and recorded hourly closes above $80,500 from 02:00 through 06:00.
Renewed spot-fund demand provides buying pressure that could carry Bitcoin back above the threshold and help it remain there.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds received $337 million in net inflows on August 25 after attracting $1.92 billion the preceding week.

Points to NO

Bitcoin surrendered its move above the threshold within hours, indicating strong nearby selling that reduces the chance of holding the required level.
Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $78,933.87 at 12:19 UTC on August 25 after trading as high as $81,265.30 that day.
Stretched momentum and concentrated selling pressure around the target area increase the risk that another approach is rejected before the deadline.
On August 25, Bitcoin's momentum indicator was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Short-covering appears to have powered part of the rally, making further gains less durable unless fresh investor demand replaces that temporary impulse.
On August 25, analysts attributed much of the recent rise to a short squeeze and questioned the durability of investor demand.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.