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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake
Polymarket82¢ 100¢
Our position · YES82¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedAug 30
Aug 28 forecast

Reported web routing to Fable 5.1 points to final launch preparation, so release of the next Mythos-class model by the deadline is highly likely.

Multiple late-August reports describe Fable 5.1 routing and recently removed test checkpoints, suggesting launch preparations are advanced. Anthropic has previously used safeguarded Fable models to make Mythos-class capabilities public and said more capable models were coming within months. The remaining uncertainty is meaningful: Anthropic has not confirmed Fable 5.1, its official pages still list only Fable 5, and some apparent tests may be artifacts or private experiments. Even so, the reported rollout activity and established Fable release path make a qualifying launch highly likely.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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