US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
The US strike pause began too late—around July 24—so the required 14-day window will not finish until about August 7, making a Yes resolution by July 31 almost impossible.
The US stopped bombing Iran around July 24 after nearly two weeks of nightly strikes. That sets the 14-day ceasefire clock to start on July 25. Even with no further strikes, the 14th day falls around August 7—well after the July 31 deadline. Multiple credible sources confirm strikes continued through about July 24, and there is no credible evidence that those strikes were non-qualifying or misreported. Diplomacy is active and both sides are holding fire, but the contract measures a specific 14-day window, not the general state of conflict. Because the window cannot finish in time, the resolution is No.
- US strikes on Iran were reported consistently through about July 24, resetting the 14-day clock to start July 25 and pushing completion to ~August 7, past the July 31 deadline.Evidence
- The resolution criteria tie resolution to the July 31 end date, and standard interpretation requires the 14-day span to be completed within the assessment window, not merely started.Evidence
- There is no credible reporting of a US strike on Iran between July 25 and July 27, confirming the pause but not altering the clock start.Evidence
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.