Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO58¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

Iran is unlikely to impose a mandatory Hormuz fee by August 31, because prolonged traffic halts after its closure of the strait block any collection scheme.

Intense kinetic escalation and halted traffic strongly favor a NO resolution, either through prolonged closure or a non-compulsory diplomatic compromise.

Points to NO

US military struck 140 Iranian sites, July 12
US military struck approximately 140 Iranian sites, July 12
IRGC declared Strait of Hormuz closed, July 12
IRGC declared Strait of Hormuz closed again, July 12
US demanded toll-free transit, July 11
US demanded Iran publicly state Hormuz is open toll-free, July 11

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