Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES38¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedAug 29
Aug 28 forecast
Strong advance participation in Yes-leaning Reykjavík partly offsets a last-minute Gallup swing toward No, so referendum passage is narrowly favored.
Late surveys disagree: Maskína retained a slight Yes edge, while the newer Gallup reading put No marginally ahead. Heavy advance voting in Yes-leaning Reykjavík and the ballot’s limited commitment to restarting talks provide Yes a narrow advantage, but recent movement toward No leaves either outcome readily plausible.
Points to YES
- A late Maskína survey put Yes slightly ahead, preserving a narrow path to passage if its respondents better reflect actual turnout.In fieldwork conducted August 21–25, 2026, Maskína found a slight Yes edge among decided respondents.
- The ballot authorizes negotiations rather than membership, giving cautious voters a lower-commitment reason to support Yes.A report published August 26, 2026, noted that any eventual EU membership agreement would face a separate referendum.
- Heavy advance participation in Reykjavík locks in more ballots from the strongest Yes region, modestly improving the passage path.By August 26, 2026, Reykjavík-region advance voting was running above the reported nationwide share.
Points to NO
- The newest Gallup survey put No marginally ahead, indicating that late movement may have erased the earlier Yes advantage.Gallup fieldwork conducted August 24–27, 2026, found a narrow No lead that was not statistically significant.
- Opposition outside Reykjavík creates a broad geographic obstacle that could overwhelm the capital’s stronger support for restarting talks.Maskína’s July 22–29, 2026, survey found majority opposition outside the capital, including especially strong opposition in East Iceland.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.