Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+104%$100 paper stake

Kalshi49¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES49¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin is only slightly above $78,000 but retains strong broader momentum, so a September 4 settlement at or above the threshold is favored.

Bitcoin enters the final stretch barely above $78,000 after retreating sharply from above $81,000. Recent liquidations, fund outflows, weak American spot demand and a less supportive interest-rate outlook create substantial downside risk. However, the broader August advance remains intact, Bitcoin is still above major moving averages, and recent fund inflows and on-chain demand provide enough support to make an above-threshold settlement favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a narrow cushion above the settlement threshold.
On August 30, Bitcoin traded at $78,184.04 on Coinbase after reaching a daily low of $77,469.96.
The broader trend remains constructive despite the recent pullback.
On August 30, Bitcoin remained above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while its daily MACD remained positive.
Recent investment flows and underlying demand continue to support Bitcoin.
As of August 30, spot Bitcoin funds had received more than $2.5 billion over seven consecutive sessions while on-chain demand rose by about 170,000 BTC over the trailing month.

Points to NO

Bitcoin recently rejected levels above $81,000 and suffered a leveraged selloff.
On August 28, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 and the decline triggered $478 million in leveraged-position liquidations.
Inflation concerns and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook pressure risk assets.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said policymakers needed confidence that inflation was moving toward their objective clearly and sufficiently quickly.
American spot demand has weakened near the threshold.
On August 30, the Coinbase premium was negative, indicating that American spot buyers were not aggressively pursuing Bitcoin.

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