Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+37%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 12 forecast

The Late Show swept five Creative Arts awards and ended John Oliver’s writing streak, so an Outstanding Variety Series win is highly likely.

The Late Show’s five Creative Arts wins, especially its break of Last Week Tonight’s decade-long writing streak, show unusually broad support for its final season. Its prior talk-series victory and a strong farewell narrative add momentum, while separate approval voting means it need not defeat every rival head-to-head and multiple programs can win. Colbert’s support for Jimmy Kimmel and Last Week Tonight’s recent strength leave upset risk, but The Late Show remains highly likely to receive enough approval to be named a winner.

Points to YES

A dominant Creative Arts showing indicates unusually broad Academy support for The Late Show’s final season.
On September 5, 2026, The Late Show won five Creative Arts Emmys spanning writing, directing, editing, lighting and technical production.
The area-award format lets The Late Show win without defeating every rival head-to-head.
On September 10, 2026, reporting explained that voters assess each nominee separately and that the category can produce multiple winners.
The farewell narrative gives voters a clear reason to honor Colbert and his crew together.
On September 12, 2026, The Guardian predicted a Late Show win and assessed that voters would use the category to celebrate the program after its cancellation.

Points to NO

Last Week Tonight remains proven top-category competition from the scripted side of the newly merged field.
On September 14, 2025, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver won Best Scripted Variety Series.
Colbert’s public support may broaden backing for Jimmy Kimmel Live!, although separate approval voting limits the direct damage.
During the 2026 Emmy campaign, Colbert publicly encouraged voters to consider Jimmy Kimmel Live! for the award.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.