Will Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake

Polymarket58¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES58¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 19

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Several late polls place the Centre Party inside the target band after sustained gains, so a 7%–9% vote share is favored.

The Centre Party’s weighted polling trend and several recent surveys now fall within the target band, with momentum strengthening during August. The evidence is not uniform: one late-August poll remained below 6%, while a statistical projection also points below the threshold. Late voter decisions and normal polling variation leave meaningful risk on both sides, but the breadth and recency of in-range readings make a 7%–9% result favored.

Points to YES

The weighted national polling trend is centered comfortably within the target band.
On September 2, 2026, the weighted Election Trend placed the Centre Party at 7.5%, after a gain of 1.1 points over the preceding 30 days.
Several independent late polls place the Centre Party between 7% and 9%.
The August 24–30, 2026 Novus poll put the Centre Party at 8.3%, up 1.2 points from the preceding Novus survey.
The party’s improvement has persisted rather than appearing in only one survey.
On September 2, 2026, TV4 reported that the Centre Party had risen for a fourth consecutive month in Novus polling.

Points to NO

A recent poll still places the party materially below the target band.
An Indikator Opinion poll dated August 23, 2026 measured Centre Party support at 5.9%.
A statistical election projection remains below the band’s lower boundary.
On September 1, 2026, the Botten Ada election model projected approximately 6.4% for the Centre Party.

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