Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi31¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO69¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin is below $78,750 with only hours remaining, so reaching the threshold on September 3 is unlikely.

Bitcoin is currently at $78,251.64, only 0.64% below the threshold, but the latest September 3 high remained below $78,750. Recent trading above the threshold shows that a quick rally is feasible, yet repeated retreats and limited time make a qualifying September 3 price unlikely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin had remained below $78,750 during September 3 trading through the latest reported observation.
As of 4:03 a.m. UTC on September 3, Bitcoin's intraday high was $77,877.20.
Recent attempts to hold above $78,000 have repeatedly reversed.
On September 2, Bitcoin briefly traded above $78,000 before falling as low as $76,229.
Leveraged selling has added pressure during the final approach to settlement.
On September 2, $91 million of leveraged long Bitcoin positions were liquidated.

Points to YES

Bitcoin needs only a modest late-session gain to reach the threshold.
On September 3, Bitcoin was at $78,251.64, leaving it 0.64% below $78,750 with hours remaining.
Bitcoin has recently demonstrated that it can cross $78,750 within a single session.
Bitcoin reached an intraday high of approximately $79,200 on September 1.

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