Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?

Realized · held to resolution+138%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES42¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updatedAug 29

Aug 28 forecast

Late campaign evidence shows One Nation leading a major-party revolt, so Luke Herdegen winning Secret Harbour is favored but far from guaranteed.

Herdegen enters polling day with repeated signs that disaffected Labor and Liberal voters have moved toward One Nation. That momentum makes him the favored winner, but Labor’s deep history in the seat, uncertain preference transfers and the absence of a representative electorate-wide survey leave substantial upset risk.

Points to YES

Late campaign assessments put Herdegen ahead, making a One Nation victory the clearest single path through the three-way contest.
On 27 August, AAP reported that One Nation was being tipped to win and that political analyst Martin Drum expected it to win comfortably.
Early-voter sentiment strongly favored One Nation, suggesting Herdegen may have banked a substantial lead before polling day despite the sample’s limitations.
On 27 August, Poll Bludger reported that half of 120 surveyed first-day early voters said they backed One Nation, while warning that the small sample could be unrepresentative.
Dissatisfaction with both major parties gives Herdegen a route to draw votes from Labor and Liberal simultaneously rather than relying on one side collapsing.
On 26 August, ABC reported voter concern about housing and living costs, dissatisfaction with both major parties, and weakening party loyalty in outer suburbs.

Points to NO

Labor’s entrenched local support means Herdegen needs an unusually large shift to convert campaign momentum into victory.
On 28 August, ABC classified Secret Harbour as a very safe Labor seat with an 11.5% margin and continuous Labor representation in the area since 2007.
A split conservative vote and imperfect preference transfers could let Labor survive even if Herdegen records a strong primary vote.
An analysis published on 12 August argued that One Nation and Liberal could divide conservative support, that preferences might not transfer cleanly between them, and that Greens preferences favored Labor.
The absence of representative local polling leaves open the possibility that Herdegen’s apparent lead reflects selective reporting rather than electorate-wide support.
On 27 August, Poll Bludger reported that no electorate-wide Secret Harbour survey had emerged.

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