Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO48¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin sits below $78,500 with several days remaining, so a September 4 price at or above the threshold is less likely than not.

At $77,852, Bitcoin is only 0.83% below the strike, leaving the gap closeable within the remaining window. Recent trading nevertheless favors the downside: rallies above $80,000 have repeatedly failed, resistance begins near $79,400, and Bitcoin quickly surrendered its late-August three-month high. Strong recent ETF demand and Bitcoin’s demonstrated ability to cross $78,500 keep a rebound firmly in play, but a finish below the threshold is more likely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin entered the final days below the required $78,500 level.
Bitcoin traded at $77,518.89 on Coinbase Pro at 4:30 a.m. UTC on August 31, 2026.
Overhead resistance could impede even a modest recovery above the strike.
On August 31, the $79,400–$80,800 range was identified as key resistance ahead of the September 4 U.S. jobs report.
Repeated failures above $80,000 show that sellers remain active near the required recovery zone.
Both late-August attempts to rise above $80,000 were sold back below that level.

Points to YES

Bitcoin recently traded comfortably above $78,500, demonstrating that the threshold is reachable within a short period.
Bitcoin reached $81,326.81 on August 28, its highest level in three months.
Substantial recent ETF demand provides a potential source of renewed buying pressure.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive net-inflow sessions totaling around $2.8 billion before the end of August.

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