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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ 100¢
Our position · YES76¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Sep 1 forecast

Amazon Bedrock behavior points to near-release Fable 5.1 infrastructure work, so Anthropic releasing its next Mythos-class model by September 4 is likely, with meaningful uncertainty.

The visible evidence is suggestive rather than conclusive: a Fable 5.1-specific Bedrock response and reported account testing point toward an approaching release, while Anthropic has announced neither the model nor a date. The forecast nevertheless treats a qualifying launch as likely because the infrastructure clue appeared immediately before the deadline and a software release can become public without lengthy advance notice. Unfinished safety reviews and the narrow window leave meaningful room for delay.

Points to YES

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