Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+15%$100 paper stake
Polymarket28¢ → 17¢
Our position · NO72¢ → 83¢
Signal endedJul 15
Forecast updatedJul 17
Jul 8 forecast
Machado is unlikely to enter Venezuela by July 31 because the joint US-Venezuelan blockade has pushed her toward a gradual return rather than a risky crossing.
Machado's formal entry is blocked by a rare US-Venezuela consensus, and her July 7 pivot to a 'gradual return' sharply reduces the likelihood of a clandestine border run this month.
No factor breakdown on this forecast.
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