Trump renames AI by October 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket80¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO20¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 29

Forecast updatedSep 29

Sep 29 forecast

No presidential instrument has followed Trump’s declaration, so an official federal renaming of artificial intelligence by the deadline is less likely than not.

The visible record leans against an official rename: no formal presidential instrument had appeared by September 25, and major federal bodies still used “artificial intelligence.” Trump’s explicit declaration, adoption inside one State Department bureau, and previous use of executive orders for naming changes keep a late action genuinely live. With little time remaining, continued federal use of “artificial intelligence” is the more likely outcome.

Points to NO

No published presidential action had formally renamed artificial intelligence after Trump announced the terminology change.
As of September 25, 2026, no executive order, presidential memorandum, or Federal Register notice renaming artificial intelligence had been published.
Major federal institutions continued using “artificial intelligence,” indicating that Trump’s language had not become government-wide policy.
As of September 25, 2026, the Defense and Energy departments, National Science Foundation, AI.gov, and NIST still used “artificial intelligence” or “AI.”

Points to YES

Trump publicly declared “Super Intelligence” the official replacement term and said United States documents would be changed.
On September 22, 2026, the White House’s account of Trump’s United Nations address quoted him calling artificial intelligence “hereinafter officially called ‘Super Intelligence.’”
A State Department bureau began implementing the terminology change, showing that Trump’s declaration prompted concrete federal activity.
On September 22, 2026, the bureau instructed diplomats to replace “AI” with “SI” in official documents, speeches, and press materials.
Trump continued promoting “Super Intelligence” several days after his initial declaration, suggesting sustained rather than momentary interest.
On September 25, 2026, Trump used “Super Intelligence (SI)” in a social-media post about a planned technology-adviser position.

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