QuotientQuotientQuotient

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket70¢ 100¢
Our position · YES70¢ 100¢
Signal endedAug 12
Forecast updatedAug 10
Aug 7 forecast

Peggy Flanagan is likely the Democratic Senate nominee, backed by the party endorsement and a strong primary poll lead despite one tied survey.

Peggy Flanagan is favored to become Minnesota’s Democratic Senate nominee. She won the state party’s DFL endorsement on May 30, giving her organizational backing, while her main rival Angie Craig skipped the convention to run in the primary. A July PPP poll of likely Democratic primary voters showed Flanagan ahead 46 percent to 32 percent, a substantial margin. However, a separate KSTP/SurveyUSA poll from July showed the two candidates tied at 40 percent, introducing real uncertainty. The primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026, and as of August 7 no vote has taken place and no results are available. Because endorsements and polling advantages in low-turnout primaries often translate into victory, Flanagan is the more likely winner, though the conflicting survey means the outcome is not certain. The resolution awaits the party’s announcement of the primary winner.

Points to YES
Points to NO

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.