Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $80 in August?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket39¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES39¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedAug 31
Aug 27 forecast
Several major feeds recorded WTI below $80 on August 26, so a qualifying Pyth one-minute touch in August is favored but far from guaranteed.
The affirmative outcome is favored because independent futures records show WTI already crossed the threshold and remained close afterward. Uncertainty persists because Pyth alone controls resolution, while the sharp rebound and continuing Hormuz disruption could keep the final sessions above $80.
Points to YES
- A reported active-month low beneath $80 makes a qualifying Pyth candle substantially more plausible, directly supporting the affirmative outcome.On August 26, FT/LSEG recorded a WTI CL.1 low of $79.62, with an $82.23 close.
- WTI remained close enough to the threshold on August 27 that another modest decline could produce a qualifying touch before month-end.On August 27, delayed FT/LSEG data showed WTI at $82.09 and a session low of $80.65 while trading was still underway.
- Large-scale shipping workarounds are keeping Gulf oil moving, restraining the supply-risk premium and increasing the chance of renewed price weakness.On August 16, Middle Eastern producers were reported to be moving large crude volumes through covert Hormuz shuttles for transfer in the Gulf of Oman.
Points to NO
- The rapid recovery from the sub-$80 low shows buyers can reverse selloffs, reducing confidence that weakness will persist or recur on Pyth.On August 26, October WTI recovered from an overnight low of $79.62 and settled at $82.23.
- The Strait’s continuing closure preserves a substantial geopolitical risk premium that can keep WTI above the threshold despite recent diplomatic efforts.On August 26, Iran described only temporary commercial routes under a potential arrangement, while the Strait remained largely shut.
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