Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+54%$100 paper stake

Kalshi65¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES65¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 20

Forecast updated

Oct 15 forecast

YES: Q 76.8% · Market odds 69% at forecast

Capacity return. Container capacity on the Suez Canal has passed half its pre-disruption level for the first time.

Main caution: The latest weekly average of 41.7 transits a day sits just below the needed pace.

Evidence and updates

Recent totals. The seven days through October 4 already cleared the mark with 302 transits.

Ship size. Large container ship transits ran 166 between July and September versus 16 a year earlier.

Q and odds rise. Q +22.8 pts; odds +17.0 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-15T16:55:38.842329+00:00 · Quote: kalshi-market-v2:midpoint · 2026-10-15T14:06:35.746388+00:00.

Ask Q: Will independent weekly trackers publish a Suez Canal total above 300 for October 12 to 18 before the official IMF PortWatch release?

Capacity return

In the first two weeks of October 2026, Suez Canal container-ship capacity exceeded 50% of its pre-disruption level for the first time since the Houthi attacks began.

Recent totals

IMF PortWatch estimated 302 Suez Canal ship transits in the seven days through October 4, 2026.

Ship size

Between July and September 2026, 166 medium and large container ships exceeding 130,000 tonnes transited the Suez Canal, compared with 16 in the same 2025 period.

Main caution

IMF PortWatch reported a seven-day average of 41.7 Suez Canal transits per day through October 11, 2026.

Points to YES

Major carriers are committing to the Suez Canal as a permanent routing rather than a temporary detour, which adds scheduled capacity to the canal week by week.
On October 13, 2026, CMA CGM said it was continuing to return its services to the Suez Canal as a permanent and sustainable route, and its ships PANTHEON and MONTE CRISTI transited that day.
Canal container capacity has climbed past half its pre-disruption level for the first time since the attacks began, putting the recovery on a higher plateau than earlier in 2026.
In the first two weeks of October 2026, container-ship capacity transiting the canal exceeded 50 percent of its pre-disruption level for the first time since the Houthi attacks began.
Recent weekly totals have already reached the threshold, and fourth-quarter tracking puts the typical week above it, so clearing 300 does not require a break from current behavior.
PortWatch estimated 302 canal transits in the seven days through October 4, and separate fourth-quarter tracking showed an average of about 325 transits a week.

Points to NO

The governing series' newest weekly average sits just under the pace needed, and it fell slightly week over week, so the latest measured state is marginally short of the line.
The seven-day average through October 11, 2026 was 41.7 transits a day, about 292 over a week, and 3.2 percent lower than the preceding seven-day period.
Security in the southern Red Sea is unsettled, and a serious attack could prompt carriers to divert again mid-window and cut transits.
A 2,400-TEU container ship reportedly came under small-arms fire in the southern Red Sea in the week before October 12, 2026, even as Asia-Europe services kept returning to the canal.

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