Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

The direct Israel-Iran ceasefire is probable to survive through August 31, as both sides maintain strategic separation despite intense US-Iran conflict, though a 15-20% risk of direct escalation remains live over the 36-day window.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is holding in practice, with both sides fighting separate battles—Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran against US and Gulf targets. There is no sign of direct strikes in the latest reports, and both governments have clear reasons to avoid opening a direct front. The main danger over the next five weeks is that US escalation pulls Israel in, or that Iran miscalculates and strikes Israel directly. Israeli leaders say they would only join if Iran attacks first and Washington approves, which is a high bar. Iran's leadership is focused on Hormuz and American forces, not on provoking Israel. Still, 36 days is long enough for miscalculation, especially with Netanyahu meeting Trump and Israeli officials predicting inevitable escalation. The forecast treats direct conflict as a real but minority possibility, with the ceasefire more likely than not to survive intact.