US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+10%$100 paper stake

Polymarket34¢ → 28¢

Our position · NO66¢ → 72¢

Signal endedJul 23

Forecast updatedAug 11

Jul 16 forecast

A formal US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 15 is highly unlikely because Washington was still enforcing it with strikes and vessel interdictions on July 16.

As of July 16, the US just reinstated the blockade (E1,E2) and is enforcing it with strikes in Iran and a disabled tanker (E3,E8,E7). Trump convened escalation meetings (E5) rather than discussing termination. The contract requires an official, declarative, general announcement; none exists (E6). Historical blockade markets show some announcement volatility (memory blend ~0.25, rate 51.7%), but the current escalation context lowers applicability. Over 30 days, continuation is the dominant path. The probability of a qualifying termination announcement is low (~9%).

Points to NO

Active blockade reinstatement and enforcement strikes through July 16 show no reversal intent.
Evidence
Escalation planning and Situation Room meetings indicate pressure is increasing, not easing.
Evidence

Points to YES

Historical market cases show blockade announcements can occur suddenly via presidential social media or official statements.
Evidence

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.