US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+28%$100 paper stake
Polymarket30¢ → 11¢
Our position · NO70¢ → 89¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 12 forecast
A formal senior-level US-Iran meeting by July 31 is very unlikely, because the two sides hold mutually exclusive preconditions for talks.
Iran's July 12 strikes on mediator host nations and rigid US preconditions make an in-person senior round highly improbable within the 19-day window.
Points to NO
- Iran launched drone strikes on Omani and Qatari targetsIran attacked mediator nations with missiles and drones, July 12
- US demanded public Iranian pledge to cease Hormuz attacksUS officials set public transit pledge as strict precondition, July 10
- US Embassy in Oman issued shelter-in-place directiveEmbassy warned citizens in Duqm and Musandam amid drone strikes, July 12
Points to YES
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Oman for talksAraghchi deployed to Muscat for Strait of Hormuz discussions, July 11
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