Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Polymarket26¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jul 14 forecast

Iran is unlikely to formally withdraw from MOU negotiations by July 31 because citing US non-compliance lets it freeze commitments without a definitive termination.

Iran relies on conditional suspension to avoid diplomatic blame, explicitly tying its non-compliance to US actions. The resolution criteria strictly require unconditional termination.

Points to NO

MFA declared commitment-for-commitment policy
MFA spokesman Baghaei announced commitment-for-commitment diplomatic approach, July 13
Neither party formally voided MoU
Xinhua reported neither party formally declared MoU void, July 14
Short 17-day resolution window
Window length is roughly 17 days

Points to YES

US resumed military operations notification
Trump notified Congress regarding resumed US military operations, July 10

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