Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Realized · 7-day hold−7%$100 paper stake
Polymarket32¢ → 37¢
Our position · NO68¢ → 63¢
Signal endedJul 15
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 8 forecast
Iran is unlikely to formally withdraw from the memorandum of understanding talks because it gains more by suspending participation and litigating US bad faith.
Iranian July 8 statement protests US violations but omits withdrawal, confirming conditional suspension strategy.
Points to NO
- Iranian FM omitted formal withdrawalIranian Foreign Ministry protested US MOU violations without withdrawal, July 8 2026
- IRGC launched kinetic retaliationIRGC claimed strikes on 85 US military facilities, July 8 2026
- US President declared MOU overUS President Trump declared Islamabad MOU over, July 8 2026
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.