Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Polymarket32¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 19

Forecast updated

Jul 8 forecast

Iran is unlikely to formally withdraw from the memorandum of understanding talks because it gains more by suspending participation and litigating US bad faith.

Iranian July 8 statement protests US violations but omits withdrawal, confirming conditional suspension strategy.

Points to NO

Iranian FM omitted formal withdrawal
Iranian Foreign Ministry protested US MOU violations without withdrawal, July 8 2026
IRGC launched kinetic retaliation
IRGC claimed strikes on 85 US military facilities, July 8 2026
US President declared MOU over
US President Trump declared Islamabad MOU over, July 8 2026

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