Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin is already modestly above the threshold with hours remaining, so a September 9 settlement at or above $78,500 is favored.

Bitcoin currently stands at $78,889.8585, only 0.49% above the strike, with less than seven hours until settlement. Recent spot-led buying and strong ETF inflows support the rebound, making a settlement at or above $78,500 favored. The narrow cushion, elevated volatility and the previous day's drop below $78,000 leave substantial room for a late reversal.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a narrow but important cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 9, settlement-basis Bitcoin stood at $78,889.8585, about 0.49% above $78,500.
Recent rebounds have been powered by direct spot demand rather than leverage, making the recovery more durable.
On September 9, Bitfinex said recent Bitcoin rebounds were driven by direct spot buying rather than leverage.
Large ETF inflows indicate meaningful institutional demand behind Bitcoin's recovery.
By September 9, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted US$1.01 billion of net inflows over three trading sessions.

Points to NO

Elevated volatility makes Bitcoin's small cushion above $78,500 vulnerable to a rapid reversal.
On September 9, implied volatility above 40 was assessed as signaling a larger Bitcoin move ahead without indicating its direction.
The recent downside range shows Bitcoin can breach the threshold quickly.
Bitcoin fell as low as $77,600 on September 8.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.