Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 18¢
Our position · NO62¢ → 82¢
Signal endedJul 20
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 13 forecast
Russia is unlikely to capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 because the Institute for the Study of War maps territorial changes conservatively, lagging well behind battlefield claims.
Russian flanking maneuvers raise the risk of capture, but the 18-day deadline and ISW's strict mapping criteria make a verified red shading less likely than a prolonged defense or mapping lag.
Points to NO
- Ukrainian forces retained Pravoberezhna industrial areaMashovets confirmed Ukrainian retention of industrial area near Pravoberezhna Street, July 12 2026
- ISW mapping requires visual consolidation proofISW strictly excludes infiltration from Assessed Control, July 13 2026
- Russian advance averages 50 meters dailyCSIS assessed average advance of 50 meters per day around Kostyantynivka, July 1 2026
Points to YES
- Russian forces advanced north of stationISW reported Russian advance north of Kostyantynivka railway station, July 12 2026
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