Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Aug 28?
Bitcoin has reclaimed the threshold amid strong spot demand, so a price at or above $79,500 on August 28 is favored but far from guaranteed.
Bitcoin enters the final days with positive momentum, a small cushion above the threshold and strong ETF-backed spot demand. Reduced reliance on leveraged longs also limits the danger of a cascading liquidation. However, repeated rejection near $81,000, stretched momentum, downside hedging and an options expiration leave ample room for a sharp reversal. Clearing the threshold is therefore more likely than finishing below it, though the narrow cushion makes the outcome vulnerable to ordinary Bitcoin volatility.
- Trading above the threshold provides a cushion against a modest pullback and raises the chance Bitcoin remains above it on August 28.On August 25, Bitcoin was reported at $80,894, above $79,500, after setting a daily pivot at $80,233.
- Persistent ETF inflows provide spot demand that can absorb profit-taking and make the rally more durable through the deadline.US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $337.6 million on August 24, extending a six-session inflow streak to approximately $2.26 billion.
- Limited leveraged-long participation reduces the risk that a routine decline triggers forced selling large enough to carry Bitcoin below the threshold.On August 25, crypto-margined futures open interest was near an all-time low and cash-backed collateral dominated futures activity.
- Repeated selling near $81,000 and stretched momentum increase the chance that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin back under the threshold before August 28.On August 25, Bitcoin retreated nearly 3% from overnight highs above $80,000 as the 50-week moving average capped the rally.
- Continued demand for downside protection signals concern about a near-term reversal and could reinforce selling if Bitcoin weakens.On August 25, aggressive selling had returned while seven-day options skew remained negative and demand for downside protection persisted.
- The large August 28 options expiration can amplify position adjustments, making a threshold-breaking move more plausible despite the current cushion.About $6.44 billion of Bitcoin options were scheduled to expire on August 28, with substantial call positioning at $75,000 and $80,000.
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