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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 3, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket74¢ 100¢
Our position · YES74¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1

Bedrock traces and resumed security evaluations suggest advanced launch preparation, so Anthropic’s next Mythos-class public release by September 3 is likely.

The visible evidence still leans against an on-time release: Anthropic had not confirmed Fable 5.1, its catalogue omitted the model, and an anticipated August launch passed. Even so, a Bedrock response pattern consistent with prerelease registration, restarted cybersecurity evaluations, and Anthropic’s earlier promise of more capable models in the coming months support a short-notice launch. The limited time and unresolved safety work leave meaningful uncertainty, but public availability by the cutoff remains the most likely outcome.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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