Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+52%$100 paper stake
Polymarket58¢ → 88¢
Our position · YES58¢ → 88¢
Signal endedAug 29
Forecast updatedAug 28
Aug 22 forecast
Anthropic says more capable models are arriving within months, so another publicly available Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.
Anthropic has said more capable models are coming within months and has already shown it can package Mythos capability with safeguards for broad release. Another qualifying model is therefore likely by September’s end, with meaningful uncertainty because the strongest known successor remains internal-only and lacks release materials.
Points to YES
- Anthropic’s stated near-term model pipeline raises the chance that a qualifying successor reaches users within the remaining window.On June 9, Anthropic said more capable models were arriving in the coming months while it improved safeguards and reduced false positives.
- Anthropic has already demonstrated a route for turning restricted Mythos capability into a safeguarded public product, making another such release more feasible.On June 9, Anthropic launched Fable 5 as a Mythos-class model for general use while offering the same underlying model as Mythos 5 to a restricted group.
- New customer-controlled infrastructure could remove a major deployment obstacle for highly capable models and support a faster public rollout.On August 20, Boris Cherny said customer-controlled data infrastructure for Mythos-class models was coming in the fall after work with customers.
Points to NO
- The strongest identified successor is still an internal research system without external-release plans, increasing the risk that no qualifying product is ready in time.As of August 20, Anthropic’s Model 2 was for internal use only, had undergone a less extensive review than Mythos 5, and had no current external-release plans.
- The absence of an official name, product page, system card, release date, or API identifier leaves little visible evidence that a qualifying launch is imminent.On August 19, Anthropic had not confirmed Model 2 as Mythos-class or announced a product page, system card, release date, or API identifier for a successor.
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