Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 16

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

The Committee has repeatedly favored waiting despite elevated inflation, so holding rates steady at the September meeting is likely.

Most officials have recently preferred patience, while softer inflation and employment readings give them room to wait. Persistent above-target inflation, solid activity and explicit calls for tightening nevertheless leave a September increase as the main alternative.

Points to YES

The Committee’s repeated preference to wait raises the chance it holds once more while assessing conflicting inflation and employment signals.
On July 29, 2026, the FOMC voted 9–3 to maintain its target range, marking its fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change.
Weak payrolls increase concern about overtightening into a slowing labor market, making an immediate rate increase less attractive.
The August 7, 2026 report showed July payrolls falling by 23,000 and prior months being revised downward by a combined 103,000.
Cooling consumer-price measures give patient officials evidence that inflation can moderate without another increase, supporting a September hold.
The August 13, 2026 report showed July headline CPI easing from June and core CPI rising 0.2% during the month.

Points to NO

Persistently elevated underlying inflation strengthens the case for tighter policy and lowers the chance that the Committee waits again.
Data published August 26, 2026 showed July headline PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE inflation at 3.3%.
A substantial hawkish bloc believes policy may be insufficiently restrictive, increasing the risk that more officials support a September increase.
Minutes published August 19, 2026 said many July participants thought tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.

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