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Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+117%$100 paper stake
Polymarket46¢ 100¢
Our position · YES46¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 1

Early-September launch reports and expanding internal tests indicate readiness despite unresolved safety and branding questions, so a qualifying GPT-6 public release is favored but far from guaranteed.

A cluster of late-August reports points to an early-September Astra launch, while expanded internal testing suggests concrete release preparation. The strongest contrary evidence is official: deployment-oriented training and Astra workloads faced security-related pauses without a clear timetable for full normalization. OpenAI also has not confirmed that Astra will be called GPT-6, so an otherwise public launch might not count. With a full month remaining and OpenAI’s demonstrated ability to move a model from preview to general availability quickly, a qualifying release is favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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