Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,250 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+133%$100 paper stake

Kalshi43¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES43¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Bitcoin sits only 0.20% below the strike with ample scope to move before settlement.

Bitcoin is almost exactly on the line: the settlement-basis price is $77,098.8072, just 0.20% below $77,250. Recent evidence leans slightly against an above-threshold finish, as sellers controlled trade after the retreat from $80,000, ETF products posted net outflows, and rising yields and oil added pressure. Still, the threshold lies inside the latest observed trading range, and ordinary two-way movement before settlement makes a finish just above it slightly more plausible than one just below.

Points to YES

The $77,250 threshold lies inside Bitcoin's latest intraday trading range.
On September 2, 2026, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index was $77,180.98 after trading between $76,986.85 and $77,411.03.
A newly positive momentum reading supports the possibility of renewed buying despite recent weakness.
On September 1-2, 2026, Bitcoin's Cycle Momentum indicator turned positive for the first time since September 2022.

Points to NO

Sellers retained control after Bitcoin retreated from above $80,000.
On September 2, 2026, Bitcoin traded near $76,660 as intraday charts showed seller control following its pullback from above $80,000.
Spot ETF redemptions indicate weaker institutional demand immediately before settlement.
Bitcoin spot ETF products recorded a net outflow of $236.5 million on September 1, 2026, led primarily by IBIT redemptions.
Higher Treasury yields and oil prices are creating a difficult backdrop for risk assets.
On September 1, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79% while renewed Middle East strikes pushed oil above $90 a barrel.

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